Unusual Climate Change in India ; Does That Ring any Bells ?
India, one of the world’s most disaster-prone countries, has suffered severe economic and human losses. Weather disasters affect more than 80% of the country’s land and more than 50 million people. Disaster mitigation necessitates accurate future forecasting, which entails specialized climate change research. The summer monsoon, India’s main lifeline expects to change dramatically due to climate change. The length of the rainy season will shorten, and pre-monsoon drying may occur. Future changes may influence the spread of vector-borne diseases like malaria, dengue fever, and others.
Another recent study by 29 international experts from various institutions discovered that India has the chance of disasters such as tropical cyclones (TCs), river floods, droughts, and heatwaves. We propose a three-stage cumulative method for improved and skilled prediction, with K standing for observational analysis, U for knowledge and understanding, and M for modelling and prediction.
Unpredictable weather presents challenges. Weather patterns will have serious consequences not only for the country’s economy, but also for farmers who rely on timely rains during the summer monsoon season to cultivate their main crop. Weather forecasting will become the more-difficult cause of this unpredictability.
According to meteorologists, Monsoon 2021 was a season of extremes, with long dry spells and excessive rainfall. The official data show that rains were plentiful this year in areas that typically receive deficit rainfall, such as western Madhya Pradesh, eastern Rajasthan, and Maharashtra’s Marathwada and Vidarbha regions. The country’s rainiest regions, such as Odisha, Kerala, and the northeast, on the other hand, struggled to meet their average rainfall quota.
The IPCC report also concludes that, despite the lowest emissions scenarios, global mean sea levels will continue to rise in the twenty-first century due to ocean warming and ice sheet and glacier melting. This will pose a significant threat to those living in areas vulnerable to the effects of sea-level rise in India, which has a coastline of over 7,500 kilometres. For example, if sea levels rise by 50 centimetres, 28.6 million people in six Indian port cities – Chennai, Kochi, Kolkata, Mumbai, Surat, and Visakhapatnam – will be exposed to coastal flooding, and the assets at risk will be worth $4 trillion.
Following the publication of the report, there will be a call for countries all over the world, including India, to set more ambitious climate change goals. India has yet to announce its goal of achieving net-zero emissions. India’s current emissions, both cumulative and per capita, are significantly lower than its fair share of the global carbon budget, according to the ministry. Among the measures taken by the government to combat climate change, it highlighted the installation of 450 gigawatts of renewable energy by 2030.